Mirassol vs Atletico-MG – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 36%, yet in-form Atletico-MG provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mirassol vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Mirassol versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol at this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico-MG (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico-MG have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Atletico-MG are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mirassol lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Atletico-MG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 62% versus Atletico-MG 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 49% | Atletico-MG 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.27 xG and Atletico-MG 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.996 / defence 1.186 | Atletico-MG attack 0.856 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.167. Data: 64 Mirassol games / 63 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 36% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 32%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico-MG 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico-MG (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 70% | Atletico-MG 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 36% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Mirassol 1.27 / Atletico-MG 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.996 / def 1.186 | Atletico-MG attack 0.856 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Atletico-MG xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 18 November 2026.
What competition is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG part of?
Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 36% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mirassol and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Record (3 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico-MG 2W.
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in?
Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Atletico-MG (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 1.00x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (0.86x) against Mirassol's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
36%
2.76
32%
3.15
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.45
1.18
Atletico-MG xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.18 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mirassol's recent record stands at 25W 20D 18L from 63 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 23L across 63 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Mirassol against 1.33 for Atletico-MG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 17W 11D 4L from 32 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 7W 6D 19L across 32 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico-MG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.19 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 25W 20D 18L in their last 63 games (1.51 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 22W 18D 23L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Atletico-MG away?
Mirassol's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 1.94 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico-MG go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 72%, Atletico-MG 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mirassol) and 31% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 72% of Mirassol's recent matches and 28% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mirassol's recent games and 31% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.