Mirassol vs Atletico-MG – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Mirassol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 14 November 2026 at 21:30 UTC.

Current Form

Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Mirassol at José Maria de Campos Maia this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Mirassol are significantly better at José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.

Atletico-MG (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico-MG have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Mirassol, 1.70 for Atletico-MG — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mirassol lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Atletico-MG winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 61% versus Atletico-MG 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 46% | Atletico-MG 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.56 xG and Atletico-MG 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.013 / defence 1.075 | Atletico-MG attack 1.075 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.120. Data: 71 Mirassol games / 71 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mirassol 42% | Draw 28% | Atletico-MG 30%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Atletico-MG 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Atletico-MG 50% BTTS from recent games.

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