Juventude 1-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Vitoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Vitoria meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 11 June 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventude have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juventude's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.33 xG and Vitoria 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.942 / defence 0.911 | Vitoria attack 0.668 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.177. Vitoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Juventude games / 7 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 51% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 19%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Vitoria 5.26. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jun 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 51% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Juventude 1.33 / Vitoria 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.942 / def 0.911 | Vitoria attack 0.668 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Juventude (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Vitoria xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Vitoria kick off?
Juventude vs Vitoria kicked off at 23:00 on Tuesday 11 June 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Vitoria?
Juventude 1 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Juventude vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Vitoria part of?
Juventude vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 51% chance of winning, Vitoria a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Juventude and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Vitoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Vitoria in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juventude's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Vitoria's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (0.67x) against Juventude's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.37
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.05
0.72
Vitoria xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Juventude and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Juventude and 0.72 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Juventude
2
Draws
1
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Vitoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Vitoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Vitoria 2-2 Juventude.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Juventude and Vitoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 8, as Juventude and Vitoria drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.33 xG and Vitoria 0.72 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Vitoria attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 51% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 19%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.