Juventude 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and RB Bragantino meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Juventude against 0.70 for RB Bragantino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Juventude register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, RB Bragantino in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Juventude, 2 for RB Bragantino and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with RB Bragantino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 67% and RB Bragantino 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 48% | RB Bragantino 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.61 xG and RB Bragantino 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.042 / defence 1.131 | RB Bragantino attack 0.884 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.014. Data: 27 Juventude games / 65 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 51% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 24%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | RB Bragantino 4.17. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 70% | RB Bragantino 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 51% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Juventude 1.61 / RB Bragantino 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.042 / def 1.131 | RB Bragantino attack 0.884 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Juventude (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.01
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Juventude vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Juventude 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Juventude vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs RB Bragantino part of?
Juventude vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 51% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Juventude and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and RB Bragantino?
Record (5 meetings): Juventude 2W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Juventude and RB Bragantino in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Juventude's attack at 1.04x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.88x) against Juventude's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.99
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.62
1.01
RB Bragantino xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Juventude and 1.01 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventude's recent record stands at 8W 8D 11L from 27 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 11L across 27 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Juventude against 1.19 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 7W 4D 2L from 13 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 1W 4D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.22 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; RB Bragantino in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 games (1.19 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or RB Bragantino away?
Juventude's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.92 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Juventude
2
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and RB Bragantino?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2025, when Juventude 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 62%, RB Bragantino 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Juventude) and 46% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Juventude's games and 62% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Juventude's recent games and 46% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 28, as Juventude and RB Bragantino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.61 xG and RB Bragantino 1.01 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.04 / defence 1.13 against RB Bragantino attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 51% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 24%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 48%, RB Bragantino 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.19 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.