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Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Juventude 0-2 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.13 xG and Palmeiras 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Palmeiras attack 1.35 / defence 0.97, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 30% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 44%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 51%, Palmeiras 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Palmeiras's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.01 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights