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Gremio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Juventude 0-2 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.67 xG and Gremio 0.93 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Gremio outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against Gremio attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 54% | Draw 26% | Gremio 20%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Gremio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 53%, Gremio 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventude 1.18 PPG, Gremio 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights