Juventude 3-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 4W 2D 0L from 6 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Gremio (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juventude, 1 for Gremio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Gremio — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 69% versus Gremio 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 38% | Gremio 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.43 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.994 / defence 0.849 | Gremio attack 0.859 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.076. Data: 13 Juventude games / 50 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 50% | Draw 31% | Gremio 19%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Gremio 5.26. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Juventude 50% | Gremio 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 50% | Draw 31% | Gremio 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Juventude 1.43 / Gremio 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.994 / def 0.849 | Gremio attack 0.859 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Juventude (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Gremio xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Gremio kick off?
Juventude vs Gremio kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Gremio?
Juventude 3 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Juventude vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Gremio part of?
Juventude vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 50% chance of winning, Gremio a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juventude and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Gremio?
Record (2 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 0 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Juventude and Gremio in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Gremio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.99) and Gremio's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.86x) against Juventude's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 13/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
50%
1.98
31%
3.23
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.22
0.79
Gremio xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
4%
22.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Juventude and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Juventude and 0.79 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Juventude against 1.08 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventude have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gremio have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Gremio in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Gremio have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Gremio away?
Juventude's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 2.33 PPG; Gremio away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gremio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventude won 3-0 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Juventude
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Gremio?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 2, Gremio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Gremio 3-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 50%, Gremio 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Juventude and 50% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gremio in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Juventude's games and 67% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventude vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Juventude's recent games and 50% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Gremio tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gremio in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Juventude run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Gremio 3-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.43 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Gremio attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 50% | Draw 31% | Gremio 19%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 38%, Gremio 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.23 PPG, Gremio 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.