🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Juventude 0-2 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.15 xG and Flamengo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Flamengo attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 33% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 39%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 52%, Flamengo 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Flamengo's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights