Juventude vs Cruzeiro – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.99) and Cruzeiro's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.44
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.58
1.23
Cruzeiro xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Juventude and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Juventude and 1.23 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.