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Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out Ceara 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventude beat Ceara 2-1 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.74 xG and Ceara 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Ceara attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 53% | Draw 30% | Ceara 17%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights