Internacional 3-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Internacional at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Vitoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Vitoria travel to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to take on Internacional. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Internacional — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Internacional have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Vitoria have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vitoria have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Internacional are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Internacional, 1 for Vitoria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 1–2 with Vitoria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Internacional in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Vitoria in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 59% versus Vitoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 44% | Vitoria 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.62 xG and Vitoria 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.106 / defence 0.972 | Vitoria attack 0.962 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.003. Data: 64 Internacional games / 27 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 53% | Draw 25% | Vitoria 22%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Vitoria 4.55. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 60% | Vitoria 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 53% | Draw 25% | Vitoria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Internacional 1.62 / Vitoria 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.106 / def 0.972 | Vitoria attack 0.962 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Internacional (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Vitoria xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Vitoria kick off?
Internacional vs Vitoria kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Vitoria?
Internacional 3 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Internacional vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Vitoria part of?
Internacional vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 53% chance of winning, Vitoria a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Internacional and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Vitoria?
Record (1 meetings): Internacional 0W | Draws 0 | Vitoria 1W.
What form are Internacional and Vitoria in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Vitoria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Internacional's attack rating (1.11) and Vitoria's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitoria's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.02
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.55
0.94
Vitoria xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
23.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Internacional and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Internacional and 0.94 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 12W 9D 6L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitoria's form line: 8W 4D 15L from 27 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Internacional are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitoria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Internacional have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L).
On the road, Vitoria have gone 3W 2D 8L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Internacional are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Vitoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 12W 9D 6L in their last 27 games (1.67 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 8W 4D 15L in their last 27 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Vitoria away?
Internacional's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.92 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Internacional and Vitoria runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitoria have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Internacional's record when hosting Vitoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Internacional
0
Draws
3
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Vitoria?
From 5 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Vitoria have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Vitoria 2-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Vitoria?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Internacional see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Vitoria see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 69%, Vitoria 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Internacional) and 46% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Vitoria in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Vitoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Internacional's games and 54% of Vitoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Internacional vs Vitoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Internacional's recent games and 46% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Internacional cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Vitoria 3-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.62 xG and Vitoria 0.94 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Internacional beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Vitoria attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 53% | Draw 25% | Vitoria 22%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 44%, Vitoria 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Vitoria's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Vitoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.