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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Internacional and Santos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional and Santos finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Beira-Rio, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.68 xG and Santos 1.06 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Santos attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 52% | Draw 24% | Santos 24%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 44%, Santos 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Santos's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.18 PPG, Santos 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights