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Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Internacional 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Internacional 2-3 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.21 xG and Gremio 1.17 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gremio outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Gremio attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 37% | Draw 28% | Gremio 35%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 47%, Gremio 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Gremio's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.53 PPG, Gremio 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights