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Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Internacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Internacional 0-2 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.55 xG and Fluminense 0.85 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Internacional fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Fluminense outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.13 / defence 0.93 against Fluminense attack 1.07 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 53% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 20%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 45%, Fluminense 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.58 PPG, Fluminense 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights