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Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Internacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Internacional 1-3 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.00 xG and Flamengo 0.98 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.91 / defence 0.88 against Flamengo attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 35% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 34%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 43%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Flamengo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.59 PPG, Flamengo 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights