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Dominant Internacional run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cruzeiro.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional beat Cruzeiro 3-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.43 xG and Cruzeiro 0.82 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Internacional beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cruzeiro landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Cruzeiro attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 48% | Draw 34% | Cruzeiro 18%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 45%, Cruzeiro 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.58 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights