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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Internacional and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional and Corinthians finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.25 xG and Corinthians 1.16 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Corinthians attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 38% | Draw 28% | Corinthians 34%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 47%, Corinthians 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Corinthians's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.50 PPG, Corinthians 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights