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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Ceara 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional beat Ceara 1-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.33 xG and Ceara 0.81 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ceara landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Ceara attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 48% | Draw 30% | Ceara 22%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 31%, Ceara 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Ceara's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.08 PPG, Ceara 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights