Internacional vs Botafogo – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Internacional's attack rating (1.28) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.04
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.16
0.98
Botafogo xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Internacional and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Internacional and 0.98 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.