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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Internacional and Bahia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 33, as Internacional and Bahia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.70 xG and Bahia 0.82 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bahia outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Bahia attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 58% | Draw 24% | Bahia 18%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 43%, Bahia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Bahia's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.44 PPG, Bahia 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights