Gremio 0-2 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gremio at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and RB Bragantino meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gremio at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Gremio's 2.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of RB Bragantino's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gremio lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 58% versus RB Bragantino 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 63% | RB Bragantino 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.30 xG and RB Bragantino 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.074 / defence 0.791 | RB Bragantino attack 0.952 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.074. Gremio's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Gremio games / 44 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 47% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 22%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | RB Bragantino 4.55. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 40% | RB Bragantino 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 47% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Gremio 1.30 / RB Bragantino 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.074 / def 0.791 | RB Bragantino attack 0.952 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Gremio (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.81
RB Bragantino xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Gremio vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Gremio 0 - 2 RB Bragantino.
Where is Gremio vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Gremio vs RB Bragantino part of?
Gremio vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 47% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gremio and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
Record (4 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Gremio and RB Bragantino in?
Gremio (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gremio's attack rating (1.07) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.95x) against Gremio's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 42/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.19
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.11
0.81
RB Bragantino xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gremio and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gremio and 0.81 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 21W 5D 12L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 17W 11D 10L from 38 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Gremio against 1.63 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 2.32 PPG from 19 outings (14W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 6W 6D 7L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.29 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: RB Bragantino in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 21W 5D 12L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 17W 11D 10L in their last 38 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or RB Bragantino away?
Gremio's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.32 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Gremio or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gremio won 3-0 on 16 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Gremio
4
Draws
4
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Gremio 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, RB Bragantino 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 32% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 32%; RB Bragantino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 42% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gremio's recent games and 32% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Gremio 0-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.30 xG and RB Bragantino 0.81 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.3 short of their projected output. RB Bragantino outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.07 / defence 0.79 against RB Bragantino attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 47% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 22%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a RB Bragantino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 63%, RB Bragantino 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.79 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.