Gremio vs Mirassol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to to face Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 December 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Gremio are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Gremio, 1.20 for Mirassol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gremio have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mirassol in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Mirassol have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Gremio's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2026, ended 1–2 with Mirassol winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mirassol have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 56% versus Mirassol 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 42% | Mirassol 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.70 xG and Mirassol 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.116 / defence 1.014 | Mirassol attack 0.860 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Data: 62 Gremio games / 62 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 51% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 21%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Mirassol 4.76. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 60% | Mirassol 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 51% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Gremio 1.70 / Mirassol 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.116 / def 1.014 | Mirassol attack 0.860 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Gremio (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Mirassol xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Mirassol kick off?
Gremio vs Mirassol is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2026.
What competition is Gremio vs Mirassol part of?
Gremio vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 51% chance of winning, Mirassol a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gremio and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 3W.
What form are Gremio and Mirassol in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Mirassol's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.86x) against Gremio's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.51
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.72
1.03
Mirassol xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
4%
26.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Gremio and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Gremio and 1.03 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 17D 25L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol's form line: 24W 20D 18L from 62 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Gremio against 1.48 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 7W 9D 14L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.44 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 20W 17D 25L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 24W 20D 18L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Mirassol away?
Gremio's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.77 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Mirassol have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 4-1 on 16 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Gremio
0
Draws
3
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Gremio have won 0, Mirassol have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Mirassol 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 57%, Mirassol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Gremio and 33% for Mirassol.
On the defensive side: Mirassol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Gremio's recent matches and 50% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gremio's recent games and 33% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Mirassol tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.