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Poisson model rates Gremio at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Mirassol make the trip to to face Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 December 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Gremio have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gremio's home record at : 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Mirassol have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Gremio, 1.00 for Mirassol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Across the last 3 meetings, Mirassol have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Gremio's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Mirassol winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mirassol have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Stats

Across 18 matches this season, Gremio have gone 5W 6D 7L. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 1.3 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-3 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 18 games (11%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.22 reds per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Mirassol show 4W 4D 9L from 17 outings in Serie A. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-1 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 6 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Gremio lead on clean sheets this season (5 vs 1). Penalty activity: Gremio 1/1 vs Mirassol 1/1 this season.

League Table

Gremio hold the table advantage, sitting 16th with 21 points — 3 positions and 5 points clear of Mirassol in 19th.

At home this season, Gremio have gone 5W 2D 2L. On the road, Mirassol's record stands at 1W 1D 6L this term. Mirassol: Relegation - Serie B.

Trading Data

Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 54% versus Mirassol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 38% | Mirassol 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.47 xG and Mirassol 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.980 / defence 1.058 | Mirassol attack 0.892 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.112. Data: 56 Gremio games / 55 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gremio 47% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 27%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Mirassol 3.70. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 60% | Mirassol 40%.

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