Gremio 0-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Flamengo at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gremio have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gremio at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Flamengo stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Flamengo's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Gremio, 3 for Flamengo and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Gremio 1–1 Flamengo — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gremio in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Flamengo in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 53% versus Flamengo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 43% | Flamengo 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gremio surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Flamengo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.17 xG and Flamengo 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.966 / defence 0.832 | Flamengo attack 1.401 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.101. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.401, which lifts their away xG to 1.28. Data: built from Gremio's last 52 games and Flamengo's last 51.
Result probabilities: Gremio 33% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 39%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.99 | Draw 3.59 | Flamengo 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gremio 50% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 33% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Gremio 1.17 / Flamengo 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.966 / def 0.832 | Flamengo attack 1.401 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Flamengo xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Gremio vs Flamengo kick off?
Gremio vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Flamengo?
Gremio 0 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Gremio vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Flamengo part of?
Gremio vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 33% chance of winning, Flamengo a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gremio and Flamengo will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Gremio vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gremio's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gremio's last 52 games and Flamengo's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.59
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.46
1.28
Flamengo xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gremio and 1.28 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 25W 19D 32L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 43W 20D 13L from 76 games, 1.96 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 38 home games (18W 7D 13L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 18W 10D 10L from their last 38 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.83 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
Gremio (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gremio
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Gremio and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 games (1.24 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.61 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Gremio or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 4 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jun 2023, when Flamengo won Flamengo 3-0 Gremio.
Gremio's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gremio
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Flamengo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gremio have won 3, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2026: Flamengo 3-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 50%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gremio) and 53% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Gremio have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gremio vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gremio and Flamengo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gremio's games and 60% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gremio and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gremio's recent games and 53% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Gremio's recent matches and 66% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Gremio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Gremio 0-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.17 xG and Flamengo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Flamengo attack 1.40 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 33% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 39%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 43%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.