Gremio 1-2 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gremio at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Criciuma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Criciuma meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 25 September 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena do Grêmio, Gremio have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena do Grêmio this season.
Criciuma (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Criciuma's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Gremio. A 0.80 PPG lead over Criciuma (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gremio, 0 for Criciuma and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Gremio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Criciuma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 42% versus Criciuma 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 42% | Criciuma 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.83 xG and Criciuma 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.970 / defence 1.207 | Criciuma attack 0.922 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.009. Criciuma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Gremio games / 26 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 54% | Draw 23% | Criciuma 23%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Criciuma 4.35. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gremio as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 40% | Criciuma 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Sep 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 54% | Draw 23% | Criciuma 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Gremio 1.83 / Criciuma 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.970 / def 1.207 | Criciuma attack 0.922 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Gremio (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Criciuma xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Criciuma kick off?
Gremio vs Criciuma kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 25 September 2024 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Criciuma?
Gremio 1 - 2 Criciuma.
Where is Gremio vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Criciuma part of?
Gremio vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 54% chance of winning, Criciuma a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gremio and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Criciuma?
Record (1 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 0 | Criciuma 0W.
What form are Gremio and Criciuma in?
Gremio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.97) and Criciuma's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Criciuma's attack (0.92x) against Gremio's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 63/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.38
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.96
1.12
Criciuma xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
27.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Gremio and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Gremio and 1.12 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 10W 4D 12L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Criciuma's form line: 7W 8D 11L from 26 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Gremio against 1.12 for Criciuma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (5W 1D 6L).
On the road, Criciuma have gone 3W 1D 8L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Criciuma are on 1.23 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma in 73%.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Criciuma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Criciuma in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 10W 4D 12L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Criciuma have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Criciuma away?
Gremio's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.33 PPG; Criciuma away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gremio
0
Draws
1
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Gremio have won 1, Criciuma have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2024, when Gremio 1-2 Criciuma.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 33%, Criciuma 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Gremio) and 83% (Criciuma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gremio have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Criciuma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Gremio's recent matches and 75% of Criciuma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Criciuma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Gremio's matches and 83% of Criciuma's.
Do Gremio and Criciuma tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Criciuma in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Criciuma defy the odds to beat Gremio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma beat Gremio 1-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.83 xG and Criciuma 1.12 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gremio fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Criciuma outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Criciuma attack 0.92 / defence 1.39, drawn from 63/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 54% | Draw 23% | Criciuma 23%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Criciuma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 42%, Criciuma 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Criciuma's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.31 PPG, Criciuma 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Criciuma win broke the near-deadlock. Criciuma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.