Gremio vs Corinthians – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gremio's attack rating (1.15) and Corinthians's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.86
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Gremio xG
Total xG
3.09
1.42
Corinthians xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
6%
17.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Gremio and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Gremio and 1.42 for Corinthians, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.