Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gremio at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena do Grêmio plays host to Gremio versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Arena do Grêmio this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Gremio, 0.60 for Chapecoense-sc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gremio lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 56% versus Chapecoense-sc 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 44% | Chapecoense-sc 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.78 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.049 / defence 1.031 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.752 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.145. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Gremio games / 23 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 56% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 16%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Chapecoense-sc 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 60% | Chapecoense-sc 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 56% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Gremio 1.78 / Chapecoense-sc 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.049 / def 1.031 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.752 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Gremio (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Chapecoense-sc xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio 3 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 56% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gremio and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (3 meetings): Gremio 2W | Draws 1 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.75x) against Gremio's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.61
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.67
0.89
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
3%
36.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Gremio and 0.89 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gremio's recent record stands at 6W 7D 10L from 23 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 13L across 23 games — 0.61 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gremio by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chapecoense-sc heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chapecoense-sc's away record stands at 0W 3D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 1.04 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 2W 8D 13L in their last 23 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Gremio's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.91 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gremio
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
From 4 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 64%, Chapecoense-sc 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gremio) and 36% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gremio's games and 54% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gremio's recent games and 36% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Chapecoense-sc 3-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.78 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.89 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.75 / defence 1.25, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 56% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 16%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 44%, Chapecoense-sc 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.61. Form held, and they took the win. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.