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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Thu 2 Oct 2025

23:30

Venue

Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Fortaleza EC Win

38%

Fortaleza EC

2.61

29%

Draw

3.44

33%

Sao Paulo

3.08

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.9%

Home win

0 – 1

11.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.16

Fortaleza EC xG

Total xG

2.19

1.04

Sao Paulo xG

38%
29%
33%
Fortaleza ECDrawSao Paulo

2.61

38%

Home win

3.44

29%

Draw

3.08

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

64%

Over 1.5

1.56

36%

Under 1.5

2.78

38%

Over 2.5

2.63

62%

Under 2.5

1.61

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.26

56%

BTTS No

1.79

Clean Sheet

35%

Fortaleza EC

2.83

32%

Sao Paulo

3.17

Win to Nil

14%

Fortaleza EC

7.37

10%

Sao Paulo

9.76

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.1 11.6 6.0 2.1 0.5 0.1
1 12.9 13.4 6.9 2.4 0.6 0.1
2 7.4 7.7 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
3 2.9 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.155
λ Away (xG) 1.039
Total xG 2.194
League avg home goals 1.365
League avg away goals 1.024
Fortaleza EC attack strength 0.889
Fortaleza EC defence strength 1.137
Sao Paulo attack strength 0.892
Sao Paulo defence strength 0.952
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 63