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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fortaleza EC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RB Bragantino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC beat RB Bragantino 3-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.12 xG and RB Bragantino 1.17 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against RB Bragantino attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 35% | Draw 28% | RB Bragantino 37%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 46%, RB Bragantino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.52 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights