Fortaleza EC vs Internacional – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.28
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.22
0.86
Internacional xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.86 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.