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Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC beat Flamengo 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.69 xG and Flamengo 1.65 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against Flamengo attack 1.35 / defence 0.67, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 15% | Draw 24% | Flamengo 60%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 47%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Flamengo's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Fortaleza EC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights