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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 15

Kick-off

Sat 19 Jul 2025

20:00

Venue

Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Fortaleza EC Win

36%

Fortaleza EC

2.74

28%

Draw

3.55

35%

Bahia

2.83

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.5%

Home win

0 – 1

11.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.17

Fortaleza EC xG

Total xG

2.32

1.15

Bahia xG

36%
28%
35%
Fortaleza ECDrawBahia

2.74

36%

Home win

3.55

28%

Draw

2.83

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.12

53%

BTTS No

1.89

Clean Sheet

32%

Fortaleza EC

3.16

31%

Bahia

3.23

Win to Nil

12%

Fortaleza EC

8.64

11%

Bahia

9.15

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.8 11.3 6.5 2.5 0.7 0.2
1 11.5 13.2 7.6 2.9 0.8 0.2
2 6.7 7.8 4.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 2.6 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2
4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.173
λ Away (xG) 1.149
Total xG 2.322
League avg home goals 1.245
League avg away goals 0.928
Fortaleza EC attack strength 1.015
Fortaleza EC defence strength 1.139
Bahia attack strength 1.087
Bahia defence strength 0.929
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 51 / 51