Fortaleza EC 4-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Bahia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo plays host to Fortaleza EC versus Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortaleza EC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza EC have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Bahia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fortaleza EC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Bahia's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fortaleza EC, 3 for Bahia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 50% versus Bahia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 42% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.55 xG and Bahia 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.071 / defence 0.704 | Bahia attack 1.088 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.016. Fortaleza EC's defence rating of 0.704 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Fortaleza EC games / 64 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 26% | Bahia 19%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Bahia 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Bahia lead the H2H ledger, but Fortaleza EC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 30% | Bahia 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 26% | Bahia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.55 / Bahia 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.071 / def 0.704 | Bahia attack 1.088 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bahia xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Bahia kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Bahia kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Bahia?
Fortaleza EC 4 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Bahia part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 56% chance of winning, Bahia a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Bahia?
Record (5 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 1 | Bahia 3W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Bahia in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fortaleza EC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.09x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.92
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.33
0.78
Bahia xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.78 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 64 games, going 29W 16D 19L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bahia sit at 1.34 PPG from 64 outings (24W 14D 26L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.34 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 19W 9D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bahia have taken 0.88 points per game from 32 outings (7W 7D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.36 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Bahia in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 29W 16D 19L in their last 64 games (1.61 PPG), while Bahia have gone 24W 14D 26L in their last 64 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Bahia away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 2.06 PPG; Bahia away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 4-1 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
2
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Bahia?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Bahia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2025, when Bahia 2-3 Fortaleza EC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 47%, Bahia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Fortaleza EC) and 53% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bahia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 53% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 53% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Bahia tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bahia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortaleza EC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Bahia 4-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.55 xG and Bahia 0.78 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.07 / defence 0.70 against Bahia attack 1.09 / defence 1.08, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 26% | Bahia 19%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 42%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bahia's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.61 PPG, Bahia 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.