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Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.35 xG and RB Bragantino 0.85 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against RB Bragantino attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 45% | Draw 34% | RB Bragantino 21%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 36%, RB Bragantino 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.34 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights