Fluminense 1-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Palmeiras travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Fluminense. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 July 2024, 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fluminense, 1 for Palmeiras and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 46% versus Palmeiras 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 42% | Palmeiras 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.823 / defence 1.147 | Palmeiras attack 1.175 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.030. Data: 55 Fluminense games / 56 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 26% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 46%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 2.17. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fluminense 80% | Palmeiras 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Jul 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 26% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Fluminense 0.98 / Palmeiras 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.823 / def 1.147 | Palmeiras attack 1.175 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Palmeiras xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 25 July 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Fluminense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Palmeiras part of?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 26% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fluminense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
Record (5 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in?
Fluminense (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.82x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
26%
3.86
29%
3.50
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.37
1.39
Palmeiras xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.39 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 18W 13D 24L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 30W 13D 12L from 55 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.85 PPG from 27 outings (14W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 10W 10D 7L from 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.62 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 18W 13D 24L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 30W 13D 12L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Palmeiras away?
Fluminense's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.85 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Palmeiras runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Palmeiras have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 59%, Palmeiras 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fluminense) and 48% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 41%; Palmeiras in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Fluminense's recent matches and 41% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fluminense's recent games and 48% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Palmeiras 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 1.39 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 26% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 46%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Fluminense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 42%, Palmeiras 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Palmeiras's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Fluminense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.