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Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Internacional 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Internacional 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.61 xG and Internacional 0.81 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Internacional landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Internacional attack 1.01 / defence 1.15, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 56% | Draw 25% | Internacional 19%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 35%, Internacional 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Internacional's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.32 PPG, Internacional 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights