Fluminense 2-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fluminense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fluminense and Gremio meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gremio (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Gremio have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Gremio, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Gremio winning.
It is worth noting that Gremio have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gremio — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 39% versus Gremio 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 36% | Gremio 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.98 xG and Gremio 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.776 / defence 0.744 | Gremio attack 0.952 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.010. Fluminense's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Fluminense games / 69 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 40% | Draw 34% | Gremio 25%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Gremio 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Gremio's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 10% | Gremio 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 40% | Draw 34% | Gremio 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Fluminense 0.98 / Gremio 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.776 / def 0.744 | Gremio attack 0.952 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Gremio xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Gremio kick off?
Fluminense vs Gremio kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Gremio?
Fluminense 2 - 2 Gremio.
Where is Fluminense vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Gremio part of?
Fluminense vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 40% chance of winning, Gremio a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Fluminense and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Gremio?
Record (5 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 0 | Gremio 5W.
What form are Fluminense and Gremio in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Gremio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fluminense vs Gremio?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.95x) against Fluminense's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
40%
2.47
34%
2.93
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.70
0.72
Gremio xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 13.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.72 for Gremio, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 26W 14D 29L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 32W 10D 27L from 69 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Fluminense against 1.54 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.94 PPG from 34 outings (19W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gremio have gone 10W 7D 17L from 34 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Gremio in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 26W 14D 29L in their last 69 games (1.33 PPG), while Gremio have gone 32W 10D 27L in their last 69 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Gremio away?
Fluminense's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.94 PPG; Gremio away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gremio in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fluminense
2
Draws
5
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Gremio?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Gremio have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, Gremio 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Fluminense) and 62% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Gremio in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 59% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Fluminense's recent games and 62% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Gremio tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Gremio in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense and Gremio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 32, as Fluminense and Gremio drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.98 xG and Gremio 0.72 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gremio outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.78 / defence 0.74 against Gremio attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 40% | Draw 34% | Gremio 25%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 36%, Gremio 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.33 PPG, Gremio 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.