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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Flamengo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Flamengo 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.04 xG and Flamengo 0.97 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 0.67 against Flamengo attack 1.45 / defence 0.80, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fluminense 36% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 33%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 32%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fluminense's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Flamengo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Fluminense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights