Fluminense 0-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Fluminense welcome Flamengo to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Fluminense) versus 1.60 (Flamengo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fluminense, 1 for Flamengo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 43% versus Flamengo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 47% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.13 xG and Flamengo 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.077 / defence 1.237 | Flamengo attack 1.384 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.099. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.384 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Fluminense games / 48 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 22% | Draw 24% | Flamengo 54%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Flamengo 1.85. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 60% | Flamengo 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 22% | Draw 24% | Flamengo 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Fluminense 1.13 / Flamengo 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.077 / def 1.237 | Flamengo attack 1.384 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Flamengo xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Flamengo kick off?
Fluminense vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Fluminense 0 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Fluminense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Flamengo part of?
Fluminense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 22% chance of winning, Flamengo a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fluminense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
Record (5 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 2 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
22%
4.58
24%
4.15
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Fluminense xG
Total xG
3.01
1.88
Flamengo xG
4.58
22%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
3%
30.08
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.88 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 37W 15D 24L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 37W 17D 22L from 76 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.66 PPG, Flamengo on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.16 PPG from 38 outings (25W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 16W 9D 13L from 38 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.53 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 37W 15D 24L in their last 76 games (1.66 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 37W 17D 22L in their last 76 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Flamengo away?
Fluminense's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.16 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Flamengo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 53%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fluminense) and 55% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Flamengo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Fluminense's games and 60% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Fluminense's recent games and 55% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Fluminense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Fluminense 0-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.13 xG and Flamengo 1.88 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Flamengo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.08 / defence 1.24 against Flamengo attack 1.38 / defence 0.82, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 22% | Draw 24% | Flamengo 54%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 47%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.66 PPG, Flamengo 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.