Fluminense 3-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fluminense at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs America Mineiro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host America Mineiro at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Fluminense have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 2, America Mineiro 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 45% versus America Mineiro 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 48% | America Mineiro 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.98 xG and America Mineiro 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.065 / defence 0.762 | America Mineiro attack 1.086 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 0.960. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Fluminense games / 56 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 65% | Draw 22% | America Mineiro 14%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | America Mineiro 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Fluminense 50% | America Mineiro 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 65% | Draw 22% | America Mineiro 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Fluminense 1.98 / America Mineiro 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.065 / def 0.762 | America Mineiro attack 1.086 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.319 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.79
America Mineiro xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs America Mineiro kick off?
Fluminense vs America Mineiro kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Fluminense 3 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Fluminense vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs America Mineiro part of?
Fluminense vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 65% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fluminense and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
Record (5 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 1 | America Mineiro 2W.
What form are Fluminense and America Mineiro in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.06) and America Mineiro's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
65%
1.55
22%
4.59
14%
7.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.77
0.79
America Mineiro xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
7.32
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
52.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fluminense and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.79 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs America Mineiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fluminense come into this having played 56 games, going 30W 10D 16L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.12 PPG from 56 outings (17W 12D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fluminense's home form reads 19W 5D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.05 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 30W 10D 16L in their last 56 games (1.79 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 17W 12D 27L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or America Mineiro away?
Fluminense's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.21 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Fluminense or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and America Mineiro runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Fluminense won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
2
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, America Mineiro have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Fluminense 3-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and America Mineiro?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 54%, America Mineiro 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fluminense) and 54% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; America Mineiro in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fluminense's recent matches and 54% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fluminense's recent games and 54% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat America Mineiro 3-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.98 xG and America Mineiro 0.79 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.06 / defence 0.76 against America Mineiro attack 1.09 / defence 1.41, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 65% | Draw 22% | America Mineiro 14%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 48%, America Mineiro 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
America Mineiro's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. America Mineiro (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.