Flamengo vs Vitoria – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Flamengo and Vitoria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo and Vitoria finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.53 xG and Vitoria 1.13 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vitoria outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Vitoria attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 45% | Draw 28% | Vitoria 27%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Vitoria 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Vitoria's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights