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Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Sport Recife 3-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.28 xG and Sport Recife 0.54 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.35 / defence 0.79 against Sport Recife attack 0.71 / defence 1.19, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 77% | Draw 16% | Sport Recife 7%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 41%, Sport Recife 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sport Recife's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights