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Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Santos 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Santos 3-2 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.39 xG and Santos 0.68 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Santos outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.41 / defence 0.75 against Santos attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 75% | Draw 16% | Santos 9%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 45%, Santos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Santos's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights