Flamengo 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Flamengo welcome RB Bragantino to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 August 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Bragantino — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Flamengo, 2 for RB Bragantino and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 58% versus RB Bragantino 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | RB Bragantino 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.47 xG and RB Bragantino 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.084 / defence 0.974 | RB Bragantino attack 1.057 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.043. Data: 60 Flamengo games / 59 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 46% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 28%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 3.57. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 70% | RB Bragantino 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 46% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Flamengo 1.47 / RB Bragantino 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.084 / def 0.974 | RB Bragantino attack 1.057 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Flamengo 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 46% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Flamengo and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Record (6 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 2 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.08) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.82
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.55
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Flamengo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.07 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 30W 14D 15L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino's form line: 24W 17D 18L from 59 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.76 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.90 PPG from 29 outings (16W 7D 6L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 7W 10D 12L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.27 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 30W 14D 15L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or RB Bragantino away?
Flamengo's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.90 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Flamengo or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 3-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 52%, RB Bragantino 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Flamengo) and 38% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Flamengo's recent matches and 52% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Flamengo's recent games and 38% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.47 xG and RB Bragantino 1.07 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against RB Bragantino attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 46% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 28%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, RB Bragantino 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.76 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.