Flamengo 1-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Flamengo face RB Bragantino.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Flamengo welcome RB Bragantino to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off is Friday 24 November 2023 at 00:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Flamengo have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Flamengo have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
RB Bragantino — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Flamengo) versus 2.00 (RB Bragantino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Flamengo have won 1, RB Bragantino 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Jun 2023, ended Flamengo 0–4 RB Bragantino — a RB Bragantino win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 54% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | RB Bragantino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 0.99 xG and RB Bragantino 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.920 / defence 0.878 | RB Bragantino attack 1.043 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.099. Data: built from Flamengo's last 71 games and RB Bragantino's last 71.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 34% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 35%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.93 | Draw 3.21 | RB Bragantino 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Flamengo's last 10 home games and RB Bragantino's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Flamengo 40% (last 10 home games) | RB Bragantino 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 34% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Flamengo 0.99 / RB Bragantino 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.920 / def 0.878 | RB Bragantino attack 1.043 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.01
RB Bragantino xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Flamengo 1 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 34% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Flamengo and RB Bragantino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Flamengo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (0.92) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 71 games and RB Bragantino's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
34%
2.93
31%
3.21
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.00
1.01
RB Bragantino xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.01 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 34W 17D 20L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 27W 22D 22L from 71 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.68 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 35 home games (19W 8D 8L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 9W 12D 14L from their last 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.34 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs RB Bragantino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 34W 17D 20L in their last 71 games (1.68 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 27W 22D 22L in their last 71 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or RB Bragantino away?
Flamengo's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.86 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Flamengo or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won RB Bragantino 4-0 Flamengo.
Flamengo's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
1
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Flamengo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Flamengo 2-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 43%, RB Bragantino 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Flamengo) and 49% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs RB Bragantino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and RB Bragantino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Flamengo's recent matches and 54% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and RB Bragantino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Flamengo's recent games and 49% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and RB Bragantino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Flamengo's recent matches and 74% of RB Bragantino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 0.99 xG and RB Bragantino 1.01 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against RB Bragantino attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 34% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 35%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, RB Bragantino 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.68 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.