Flamengo 3-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Thursday 9 November 2023 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Flamengo against 1.80 for Palmeiras. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Flamengo lead 1W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Flamengo — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 54% versus Palmeiras 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Palmeiras 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 0.93 xG and Palmeiras 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.806 / defence 0.955 | Palmeiras attack 1.295 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.078. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Flamengo games / 70 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 25% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 45%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 2.22. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 40% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Nov 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 25% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Flamengo 0.93 / Palmeiras 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.806 / def 0.955 | Palmeiras attack 1.295 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Palmeiras xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 9 November 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Flamengo 3 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Flamengo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Palmeiras part of?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 25% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Flamengo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Record (4 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 3 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.81x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.29x) against Flamengo's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
25%
3.92
29%
3.41
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.27
1.33
Palmeiras xG
3.92
25%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.88
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.33 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo come into this having played 69 games, going 33W 16D 20L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 2.03 PPG from 69 outings (40W 20D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Flamengo against 2.03 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Flamengo's home form reads 18W 7D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.82 points per game from 33 outings (16W 12D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.70 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 33W 16D 20L in their last 69 games (1.67 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 40W 20D 9L in their last 69 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Palmeiras away?
Flamengo's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.85 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
5
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Palmeiras have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 42%, Palmeiras 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Flamengo) and 46% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Flamengo's recent matches and 48% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Flamengo's recent games and 46% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Palmeiras 3-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 0.93 xG and Palmeiras 1.33 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Palmeiras attack 1.29 / defence 0.87, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 25% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 45%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Flamengo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Palmeiras 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.67 PPG, Palmeiras 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.