Flamengo 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Maracanã plays host to Flamengo versus Internacional in Serie A (matchday 2). Kick-off: Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 22:00 UK time.
Current Form
Flamengo's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Flamengo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Internacional (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Flamengo's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Internacional's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Flamengo 3–1 Internacional — a Flamengo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Internacional half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 55% versus Internacional 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | Internacional 46%). Note also that Internacional surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Flamengo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.15 xG and Internacional 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.195 / defence 0.849 | Internacional attack 0.933 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.040. Data: built from Flamengo's last 39 games and Internacional's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 68% | Draw 19% | Internacional 13%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Internacional 7.64. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Flamengo's last 10 home games and Internacional's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Flamengo 50% (last 10 home games) | Internacional 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Flamengo 39 games, Internacional 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, matchday 2 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 February 2026 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 68% | Draw 19% | Internacional 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Flamengo 2.15 / Internacional 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.195 / def 0.849 | Internacional attack 0.933 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Internacional xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Internacional FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Internacional kick off?
Flamengo vs Internacional kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Wednesday 4 February 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Internacional?
Flamengo 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Flamengo vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Flamengo vs Internacional part of?
Flamengo vs Internacional is a Serie A fixture (matchday 2) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 68% chance of winning, Internacional a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Flamengo and Internacional will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Flamengo vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.93x) against Flamengo's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 39 games and Internacional's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.26
13%
7.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.98
0.82
Internacional xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
7.64
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
12%
8.62
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
2%
65.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Internacional Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.82 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Internacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 43W 20D 13L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 29W 22D 25L from 76 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Internacional.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 2.24 PPG from their last 38 home games (25W 10D 3L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 10W 11D 17L from their last 38 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.28 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Internacional (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Internacional Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Internacional in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Internacional have gone 29W 22D 25L in their last 76 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Internacional away?
Flamengo's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.24 PPG; Internacional away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Internacional in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 29 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 1W 4D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Flamengo
6
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Internacional H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Internacional?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 2, Internacional have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Internacional last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 July 2026: Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 50%, Internacional 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 47% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Internacional in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Internacional Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Internacional matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Flamengo's recent matches and 58% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and Internacional matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 47% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Internacional matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Flamengo's recent matches and 74% of Internacional's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 2, as Flamengo and Internacional drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.15 xG and Internacional 0.82 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against Internacional attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 68% | Draw 19% | Internacional 13%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Internacional 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.