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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Fortaleza EC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Fortaleza EC 5-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.79 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.53 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.30 / defence 0.78 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Flamengo 67% | Draw 23% | Fortaleza EC 10%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Fortaleza EC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.79 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights