Flamengo 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Fluminense travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023, 21:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fluminense away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Flamengo's 30% rate and Fluminense's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Fluminense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fluminense trading profile (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 53% versus Fluminense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Fluminense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.45 xG and Fluminense 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.943 / defence 0.850 | Fluminense attack 0.694 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.089. Data: 70 Flamengo games / 70 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 57% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 16%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 57% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG Flamengo 1.45 / Fluminense 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.943 / def 0.850 | Fluminense attack 0.694 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Fluminense xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fluminense kick off?
Flamengo vs Fluminense kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Flamengo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fluminense part of?
Flamengo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 57% chance of winning, Fluminense a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Flamengo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
Record (4 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
57%
1.77
27%
3.66
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.10
0.64
Fluminense xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
4%
26.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.64 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 34W 16D 20L from 70 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 34W 14D 22L across 70 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.69 PPG, Fluminense on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 19W 7D 8L from 34 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 10W 7D 17L across 34 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 34W 16D 20L in their last 70 games (1.69 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 34W 14D 22L in their last 70 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Fluminense away?
Flamengo's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.88 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fluminense in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Fluminense runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Fluminense have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 41%, Fluminense 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 44% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Fluminense in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Flamengo's recent matches and 35% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 44% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Fluminense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 34, as Flamengo and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.45 xG and Fluminense 0.64 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Fluminense attack 0.69 / defence 1.16, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 57% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 16%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Fluminense 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.69 PPG, Fluminense 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.