Flamengo 2-1 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Criciuma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 18 as Flamengo welcome Criciuma to Arena BRB Mané Garrincha. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 July 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Flamengo have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Criciuma stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Criciuma away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Flamengo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Criciuma in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Flamengo 73% and Criciuma 87% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Criciuma 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.76 xG and Criciuma 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.019 / defence 1.071 | Criciuma attack 1.034 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.065. Criciuma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Flamengo games / 15 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 50% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 24%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Criciuma 4.17. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 70% | Criciuma 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena BRB Mané Garrincha • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 50% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Flamengo 1.76 / Criciuma 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.019 / def 1.071 | Criciuma attack 1.034 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Criciuma xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Criciuma kick off?
Flamengo vs Criciuma kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Criciuma?
Flamengo 2 - 1 Criciuma.
Where is Flamengo vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What competition is Flamengo vs Criciuma part of?
Flamengo vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 50% chance of winning, Criciuma a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Flamengo and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Criciuma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Criciuma in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.02x the league average against Criciuma's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Criciuma's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.87
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.94
1.18
Criciuma xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
4%
23.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.18 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 8W 4D 3L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Criciuma's form line: 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Criciuma.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
On the road, Criciuma have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Criciuma are on 1.47 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Flamengo have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Criciuma in 87%.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Criciuma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Criciuma in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while Criciuma have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Criciuma away?
Flamengo's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.86 PPG; Criciuma away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Criciuma runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Flamengo
0
Draws
0
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 2, Criciuma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2024, when Criciuma 0-3 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Criciuma?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Flamengo at 71%, Criciuma at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Flamengo and 86% for Criciuma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Criciuma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Flamengo's games and 86% of Criciuma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Flamengo vs Criciuma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Flamengo's matches and 86% of Criciuma's.
Do Flamengo and Criciuma tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Criciuma in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Criciuma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Criciuma 2-1 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.76 xG and Criciuma 1.18 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Criciuma attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 54/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 50% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 24%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Criciuma 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Criciuma's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.