Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.76x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.77x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.18
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.14
0.86
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.86 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.