Cuiaba 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Fluminense travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 5W 3D 2L at Arena Pantanal — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cuiaba at 1.20 PPG versus Fluminense's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cuiaba's 30% rate and Fluminense's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cuiaba have won 0, Fluminense 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Fluminense in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 34% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.26 xG and Fluminense 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.906 / defence 1.004 | Fluminense attack 0.933 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 0.874. Data: 39 Cuiaba games / 39 Fluminense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 46% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 24%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Fluminense 4.17. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 46% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Cuiaba 1.26 / Fluminense 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.906 / def 1.004 | Fluminense attack 0.933 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.424 / away 0.874 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Fluminense xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Fluminense kick off?
Cuiaba vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Cuiaba vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Fluminense part of?
Cuiaba vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 46% chance of winning, Fluminense a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cuiaba and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Fluminense in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.91x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.29
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.08
0.82
Fluminense xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.82 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 10W 17D 11L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.24 PPG, Fluminense on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Fluminense away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.42 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Cuiaba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
1
Draws
6
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Fluminense have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Cuiaba and 32% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; Fluminense in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cuiaba's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Fluminense tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.26 xG and Fluminense 0.82 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Fluminense attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 46% | Draw 30% | Fluminense 24%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, Fluminense 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.